Zurich, Switzerland – The European Economics team at Nomura, spearheaded by lead economists Josie Anderson, George Buckley, and Andrzej Szczepaniak, has issued a comprehensive forecast anticipating the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its benchmark policy rate firmly anchored at 0.00% during its pivotal September 2026 monetary policy meeting. This projection comes amidst a backdrop of strengthening Swiss economic growth, a recent uptick in inflationary pressures, and a notable depreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) against major currencies. Furthermore, the Nomura team suggests a potential recalibration of the SNB’s foreign exchange intervention rhetoric, possibly reverting to more conventional language, while unequivocally ruling out any rate hikes before 2028 at the earliest.

The decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates underscores a delicate balancing act for the SNB. While headline inflation has shown signs of acceleration, primarily driven by external factors such as energy price surges, core inflation—a more reliable indicator of underlying price pressures—continues to hover at subdued levels. This nuanced inflationary landscape, coupled with robust domestic economic performance and a more favorable exchange rate, appears to provide the SNB with ample justification to defer any tightening of monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

The SNB’s Mandate and Historical Context: A Legacy of Stability

To fully appreciate Nomura’s September 2026 forecast, it is essential to understand the SNB’s core mandate and its historical approach to monetary policy. The Swiss National Bank is tasked with ensuring price stability, defined as an annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) of between 0% and 2%. In parallel, it must take due account of economic developments. For many years, Switzerland wrestled with the specter of deflation and the persistent upward pressure on the Swiss Franc, a traditional safe-haven currency. This led the SNB to embark on an extraordinary journey, introducing negative interest rates in December 2014, eventually reaching a low of -0.75% for its policy rate. This unconventional measure, coupled with extensive foreign exchange interventions, aimed to curb the franc’s strength, support exports, and stave off deflationary spirals.

The era of negative rates concluded in September 2022, as global inflation surged and central banks worldwide began a synchronized tightening cycle. The SNB cautiously raised rates, eventually bringing them back to positive territory. However, unlike many of its peers, the SNB has since demonstrated a willingness to ease policy when inflation recedes and the franc strengthens excessively, as evidenced by its actions in earlier parts of the 2020s. This proactive, often unconventional, stance highlights the SNB’s commitment to its mandate and its pragmatic approach to navigating complex economic currents, particularly those influenced by the franc’s international appeal.

Unpacking Nomura’s September 2026 Hold Forecast: Key Drivers

Nomura’s rationale for a continued hold at 0.00% is multifaceted, drawing on recent economic data and the SNB’s likely strategic considerations.

• Inflationary Pressures: A Nuanced Picture
  The latest inflation data has indeed surprised to the upside. August 2026 saw the annual inflation rate climb to 0.8%, a significant jump from 0.4% in July, marking the fastest rate of increase since September 2024. This headline figure, however, is largely attributable to surging energy prices, a volatile component often influenced by global commodity markets and geopolitical events. Nomura explicitly highlights that "much of the rise was driven by higher energy prices, as core inflation remained low at 0.4% y-o-y." Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, provides a clearer signal of underlying demand-driven price pressures. Its persistent low level suggests that broader inflationary forces within the Swiss economy remain contained.
  Nomura’s internal forecasts further support this view, projecting Q3 2026 inflation to align with the SNB’s own June forecast of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, followed by an acceleration to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2026. While this upward trajectory indicates a gradual build-up of price pressures, these levels still remain comfortably within the SNB’s 0-2% target range, and crucially, below the perceived midpoint that might trigger more aggressive policy action. The central bank will likely interpret the current inflation environment as manageable, not requiring immediate intervention via rate hikes.

• Robust Economic Growth: Exceeding Expectations
  The Swiss economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with Nomura pointing to "stronger GDP growth" as a key factor. The SNB itself is expected to revise upward its estimate for GDP growth for the year 2026. Even with no growth in the second half of the year, the economy is on track for a 1.8% expansion for the entire year. This figure significantly surpasses the SNB’s June 2026 expectation of "around 1%." A stronger economic backdrop provides the SNB with greater flexibility. With the economy growing robustly, there is less pressure to stimulate activity through lower rates, and simultaneously, the current growth trajectory does not appear to be overheating to the extent that it would generate excessive inflationary pressures from domestic demand. This provides a comfortable cushion, allowing the SNB to observe the effects of global economic shifts and domestic trends without immediate policy adjustments.

• Swiss Franc Depreciation: Easing Intervention Urgency
  A critical element in the SNB’s policy calculus is the exchange rate of the Swiss Franc. Historically, an overly strong franc has been a persistent headache for Swiss exporters and a deflationary force for the domestic economy. Nomura notes that the EUR/CHF exchange rate is currently "near its highest level since early 2025," indicating a significant depreciation of the franc against the euro. This weaker franc is a welcome development for Swiss policymakers for several reasons. Firstly, it makes Swiss exports more competitive on international markets, boosting the export-oriented sectors of the economy. Secondly, a weaker franc naturally contributes to higher import prices, which feeds into headline inflation. In the current context of rising, but still contained, inflation, a moderately weaker franc could be seen as helping the SNB reach its inflation target without requiring rate adjustments.
  This depreciation also influences the SNB’s stance on foreign exchange interventions. Nomura suggests that "Swiss policymakers could feel it is unnecessary to signal an increased willingness to intervene." The previous period saw the SNB actively selling foreign currency reserves (and thus buying CHF) to strengthen the franc and combat imported inflation. With the franc having softened, the urgency for such direct intervention to strengthen the currency diminishes. However, the re-escalation of the Iran war introduces a new layer of complexity. Geopolitical tensions often trigger safe-haven flows into the CHF, potentially reversing its depreciation. Nomura acknowledges this, stating that "the SNB may still want to show that it is alert to possible upward pressures on CHF, and keep the June guidance for now." This highlights the SNB’s ongoing vigilance and its preparedness to act should the franc experience another significant appreciation. The ultimate goal, however, would be to potentially shift back to a "standard FX intervention language," implying less explicit guidance on interventions and more flexibility.

Chronology of Recent Economic Developments and SNB Actions

The period leading up to September 2026 has been dynamic for the Swiss economy and the SNB.

• Late 2024: The SNB continued its cautious approach, maintaining the policy rate at a low positive level, closely monitoring global inflation and the strength of the CHF. Inflation was generally subdued, often hovering below the SNB’s 1% comfort zone.
• Early 2025: Global economic growth showed signs of acceleration, driven by resilient consumer demand and easing supply chain constraints. However, geopolitical tensions in various regions continued to simmer, providing intermittent boosts to the CHF’s safe-haven appeal. The EUR/CHF pair saw fluctuations, but generally remained within a range that the SNB deemed manageable.
• Mid-2025: The SNB held its policy rate steady, reiterating its commitment to price stability while acknowledging the risks from both persistent inflation abroad and potential CHF appreciation. GDP growth figures began to show stronger momentum than initially expected.
• Late 2025/Early 2026: Energy prices, particularly for oil and natural gas, began to tick upwards globally, reflecting supply concerns and increased demand. This started to translate into higher headline inflation readings for Switzerland. The CHF, having strengthened earlier in the year due to global uncertainties, began to show signs of depreciation against the Euro as the Eurozone economy demonstrated unexpected resilience and the ECB signaled potential for further tightening.
• June 2026 SNB Meeting: The SNB kept its policy rate unchanged, but notably revised its GDP forecast for the year to "around 1%," indicating cautious optimism. Its inflation forecast remained conservative, but acknowledged emerging pressures. The rhetoric around FX intervention remained watchful, indicating a readiness to act if necessary.
• July 2026: Inflation data registered 0.4% year-on-year, still low but hinting at a potential upward trend. Economic indicators continued to point towards robust growth.
• August 2026: A significant jump in inflation to 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since September 2024, caught market attention. This rise was largely attributed to energy costs. Concurrently, the EUR/CHF exchange rate continued its ascent, signaling a sustained depreciation of the franc, reaching levels not seen since early 2025. This confluence of factors sets the stage for the September 2026 meeting.

Supporting Data and Broader Economic Context

A deeper dive into the Swiss economic data provides further context for Nomura’s assessment.

• Inflation Components: While energy prices drive headline inflation, core inflation’s stability at 0.4% suggests that domestic demand-side pressures from services and non-energy goods remain subdued. Wage growth, a crucial factor in services inflation, has been moderate, not accelerating to levels that would trigger a wage-price spiral. Rental costs, another significant component of the CPI, have also shown gradual, rather than explosive, increases.
• GDP Components: The stronger GDP growth is likely a result of a combination of factors. Private consumption, supported by stable employment and moderate wage increases, has remained resilient. Investment, both in machinery and construction, has shown signs of recovery, spurred by business confidence and relatively low borrowing costs. Furthermore, despite global uncertainties, Swiss exports have likely benefited from the overall improvement in global trade and the more favorable exchange rate, contributing positively to net exports.
• Labor Market: Switzerland’s labor market continues to be a pillar of strength. Unemployment rates consistently remain among the lowest in Europe, typically below 2.5%. While this tightness could theoretically fuel wage inflation, the Swiss system of social partnership and wage negotiation often leads to more moderate wage adjustments compared to some other economies, contributing to the SNB’s ability to maintain price stability without aggressive rate hikes.
• Global Economic Landscape: The SNB cannot operate in isolation. The monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) are particularly relevant. If the ECB and Fed continue a tightening cycle or maintain higher rates, it could exert downward pressure on the CHF against the Euro and Dollar, respectively. Conversely, any signs of significant global slowdown or recession could trigger renewed safe-haven flows into the CHF, complicating the SNB’s efforts to manage the currency. The ongoing re-escalation of the Iran war and broader Middle East instability pose a significant geopolitical risk. Such conflicts can disrupt global energy supplies, driving up oil prices, and simultaneously trigger risk aversion, leading to a flight to safety and a strengthening of the franc. The SNB must constantly weigh these international forces against domestic economic realities.

Official Responses and Market Reactions

While the SNB does not pre-commit to policy actions, its communication strategy is often carefully calibrated to guide market expectations. The SNB’s official statements typically emphasize its commitment to price stability and its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as needed. Inferred responses from the SNB’s leadership, based on past press conferences and publications, would likely focus on the temporary nature of energy-driven inflation and the importance of monitoring core inflation. They would also likely reiterate their readiness to adjust policy should the outlook for price stability change materially.

Market analysts, beyond Nomura, would likely have varied views, but a consensus would probably lean towards a hold, given the current data. The market generally values predictability, and a continued hold, especially when supported by robust GDP growth and a weakening franc, would likely be met with stability in financial markets. Investors would interpret this as the SNB maintaining a supportive stance for the economy while remaining vigilant on inflation. The business community, particularly exporters, would welcome the sustained depreciation of the franc, enhancing their international competitiveness. Importers, however, might face slightly higher costs due to the weaker currency and rising energy prices, though these are likely to be absorbed or passed on gradually.

Implications and Outlook: Beyond September 2026

Nomura’s central forecast extends well beyond the September 2026 meeting, projecting the SNB’s policy rate to remain at 0.00% until at least the end of 2027. This long-term outlook implies that the Nomura team anticipates continued moderate inflation and a largely balanced economic environment for the next 15 months. The crucial trigger for any potential rate hike, according to Nomura, would be if "inflation sustainably rises to 1% or higher (i.e. around the middle of the SNB’s inflation target of 0-2%)," in which case "policymakers may discuss the need to raise rates in 2028."

This suggests a high bar for policy tightening. The SNB, having navigated a prolonged period of negative rates and deflationary pressures, is likely to be cautious about raising rates prematurely, especially if the primary drivers of inflation are external and beyond its direct control. The goal would be to ensure that any rate adjustments are in response to genuine, persistent domestic inflationary pressures that threaten to push inflation above the 2% upper bound of its target range.

Risks to the Forecast:

• Upside Risks: A stronger-than-expected global economic recovery could boost demand for Swiss exports and services, leading to higher domestic inflation. A prolonged and significant surge in global energy and commodity prices, perhaps exacerbated by geopolitical events, could push headline inflation well above the SNB’s comfort zone. Faster-than-anticipated wage growth in Switzerland, driven by labor market tightness, could also fuel core inflation. Furthermore, if the CHF depreciates more significantly or rapidly than currently expected, it could lead to stronger imported inflation.
• Downside Risks: Conversely, a global economic slowdown or recession could dampen demand for Swiss products and services, potentially leading to renewed deflationary pressures. A significant re-strengthening of the CHF, possibly due to a major global crisis triggering a flight to safety, would complicate the SNB’s efforts to achieve its inflation target and could necessitate renewed intervention or even a return to easing measures.

For Swiss households, a prolonged period of stable interest rates at 0.00% means continued relatively low borrowing costs, particularly for mortgages, though savings rates would also remain modest. For businesses, the stability provides predictability for investment and operational planning, while the weaker franc offers a competitive edge in international markets. However, companies reliant on imports might face increased input costs.

In conclusion, Nomura’s forecast for the Swiss National Bank to maintain its policy rate at 0.00% in September 2026 is grounded in a meticulous analysis of Switzerland’s economic indicators. The interplay of stronger GDP growth, a contained yet rising inflation profile, and a more favorable exchange rate dynamic provides the SNB with the necessary latitude to observe and assess the evolving economic landscape without immediate intervention. While global uncertainties, particularly geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, remain on the radar, the SNB appears poised to prioritize stability, patiently awaiting clear and sustained signals before contemplating any shift in its accommodative monetary policy stance. The path forward for the SNB remains one of careful monitoring and pragmatic adaptation, balancing domestic imperatives with the broader complexities of the global economy.